GCPA Hears Different Tales on Texas Load Growth from 2 CEOs

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At the Gulf Coast Power Association's spring conference, two CEOs presented contrasting views on the future of ERCOT load growth in Texas. Calpine CEO Andrew Novotny highlighted a significant increase in demand forecasts, projecting a rise from 60,000 MW to over 100,000 MW by 2030. He expressed concerns about the feasibility of such growth, particularly with the anticipated influx of data centers and hydrogen electrolyzers, which could require substantial investments and resources. Novotny emphasized the need for transparency in data and cautioned against over-reliance on cryptocurrency mining and other price-responsive demands that may not significantly impact peak demand.

In contrast, AlphaGen Chair Curt Morgan offered a more cautious yet optimistic perspective, stressing the importance of competitive markets to meet the anticipated demand. He warned that failure to adapt could result in missed opportunities for growth, particularly in the data center sector. Morgan called for regulatory courage to establish a market system that supports investment in dispatchable generation, which is crucial for accommodating the expected load growth. He also pointed out the need for better regulation of the natural gas industry to prevent issues similar to those experienced during Winter Storm Uri, advocating for a balanced approach to ensure the reliability and sustainability of Texas's power infrastructure.