ERCOT Regional Planning Group Meeting Notes - 8/9

Agenda           

1)    Antitrust Admonition

2)    Miscellaneous Updates

a)    ERCOT provided an update on the RTP economic analysis status. They are finishing up the development of the start cases, which will be posted in the next few months. They will include the start case annual constraints, start case inputs, and input assumptions.

b)    ERCOT provided a brief update on the SB1281 rulemaking. ERCOT has been working with the commission to address some of the comments and inform the discussion. Various components regarding economic planning, future loads, and resiliency will inform transmission planning. Additionally, ERCOT is discussing the bi-annual ERCOT assessment.

3)    2022 RTP off peak sensitivity assumptions

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given. The on-peak analysis was presented in May; this is focused on the off-peak analysis.

b)    The RTP analysis may scale renewable generation in some circumstances, but they will not scale renewables to resolve thermal violations. They are trying to build a high renewable sensitivity that incorporates reasonable wind and solar.

c)     Stakeholders asked a number of questions about how ERCOT arrived at the numbers they selected for the 2025 estimates and their assumptions.

4)    2022 LTSA update

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given.

b)    They are currently working on the expansion of the 2021 transmission expansion.

c)     They have made some changes to the scope due to the SB1281 rulemaking, implementation of the NERC standard TPL001-5.1, and incorporation of a significant amount of large load additions. Those, combined with staffing shortages, have necessitated these changes. Previously, they had planned to do two iterations for potions of the 2022LTSA, but they will not do this second iteration.

d)    For the capacity expansion update, ERCOT looked at a current trends iteration, an expansion based on resources in the 2021 CDR, and a demand side evolution. They made several assumptions about which stakeholders had comments. In particular, ERCOT assumed that LFL’s would self-curtail at $100/MWh, but commenters stated that this dollar figure was much lower than reality, which is more like $500-1000/MWh.

e)     Stakeholders were skeptical of the results that ERCOT presented, particularly data for coal and new combined cycle gas plants. Commenters also mentioned that there may be implications for this from the inflation reduction act, and its tax implications, if it passes.

5)    Tawakoni Area Transmission Project

a)    Rayburn presented their Tawakoni project, which they submitted for RPG review. The project will interconnect two radial lines in their system, and increase system reliability and expansion capability. They have proposed it is a $27.5M Tier 2 project, which will require a CCN.

6)    Adjourn