ERCOT releases resource adequacy report for 2023 through 2032

CDR Report Background

The main purpose of the CDR report is to provide 10-year forecasted Planning Reserve Margins for the ERCOT summer and winter Peak Load Seasons (June through September, and December through February, respectively). The Planning Reserve Margin represents the percentage of resource capacity, in excess of firm electricity demand, available to cover uncertainty in future demand, generator availability and new resource supply. Firm demand accounts for potential load reductions available through interruptible load programs controlled by ERCOT. The methodologies used to develop Planning Reserve Margins and other elements of the CDR report are outlined in the ERCOT Nodal Protocols, Section 3.2.6 (https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/04/01/03-040122_Nodal.docx). ERCOT's load forecasts are based on normal weather conditions and determined by the methodologies described in the 2022 Long-Term Load Forecast Report posted on the ERCOT website (https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/24/2022_LTLF_Report.pdf).

Highlights

The forecasted peak demand for summer 2023 is 79,857MW, while the firm peak demand is 76,505 MW. The winter 2023-2024 peak demand forecast is 66,454 MW and firm peak demand forecast is 63,571 MW.

The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2023 is forecasted to be 36.2%. This is 3.2 percentage points lower than the 39.4% margin for summer 2023 reported in the December 2021 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2023. The Reserve Margin peaks at 46.2% for summer 2024. Resource data comes from generation capacity developers and owners as reported in ERCOT's Resource Integration and Ongoing Operations (RIOO) system, as well as other data collection mechanisms described in the ERCOT Protocols.

Planned resource capacity expected for the 2023 summer peak demand totals 13,117 MW. This includes 581 MW of summer-rated gas-fired resources, 834 MW of wind resources, and 11,702 MW of solar resources. These amounts of solar and wind capacity are what ERCOT expects to be available on an average basis during peak demand hours (the peak average capacity contribution).

Developers also anticipate adding 4,831MW of battery storage capacity for summer 2023. This storage capacity is currently assumed to provide grid reliability services (Ancillary Services) for short periods of time rather than to support customer demand on a sustained basis during peak demand hours. Therefore, ERCOT assigns no capacity value to this resource for the reserve margin calculations.

Spreadsheets supporting the CDR can be found here.

Source Link: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/05/16/CapacityDemandandReservesReport_May2022.pdf