ERCOT Supply Analysis Working Group Meeting Notes - 4/4

Agenda

1)    Antitrust Admonition

2)    Load Forecast Presentation Refresh and Q&A

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given. The first part is the same presentation for WMWG from August, and then it includes new information for the winter storms this February and mid-term load forecasting.

b)    ERCOT uses several different weather models in their forecasts. For winter, ERCOT is choosing the loads that show the coldest temperatures, though there is no guarantee that the actual temperature will be not be exceeded. They use the most extreme to plan for the highest amounts of load. They still can’t eliminate the risk, since the lowest model forecasts don’t always show cold enough temperatures.

c)     ERCOT’s Operations and Forecasting groups are working together to pick the models that will be used.

3)    Planned Project Success Factor Analysis

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given that covered issues for SAWG related to the interconnection queue, and how long it takes projects to work through the queue, and timing. Data shown reflect when projects commenced, not when the process was finished. Storage and DGR were not included in the data set.

b)    There is a proposed report for interconnection queue processing. There were some questions about how wind was accounted in the data, but most of the were due to congestion and the CREZ project construction. One commenters suggested that it was valuable to look at entities that get into the interconnection queue and then move slowly, allowing it to sit while they find a buyer for the project.

c)     The reporting platform is called TabloPublic. ERCOT is looking at having their own server or a different type of platform.

4)    Revamping the SARA Report

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given. They plan to increase the frequency of the SARA reports which allows them to better fine tune the reports that go into it. There would be 12 SARA reports for each month of the year, and to release these 10 weeks prior to the specific month.

b)    The other major change is to focus on probabilistic models.

c)     Stakeholders were supportive of the move to this process. They also suggested that there will need to be ongoing education about what the data means. Others commented on implementation changes.

d)    ERCOT is thinking of doing this by the end of the year and overlapping the new SARA process with the existing SARA reports. They also indicated that they could do other probabilistic analysis, or have certain months’ reports that include additional information.

e)    Commenters noted that moving the SARA to a monthly process aligns it to NPRR1108 for the outage analysis. ERCOT acknowledged that this is something that is being discussed internally.

f)     ERCOT is looking at how best to manage the data, whether to use Tablo or a dedicated server. They are also considering looking at extreme weather events and wind/solar analysis that would aid the probabilistic analysis.

g)    This will be a standing item at SAWG for the time being.

5)    Break

6)    Resource Adequacy Modeling Projects for 2022

a)    Presentation posted and given regarding modeling techniques for effective load carrying capability, zonal reliability impact study, and the NERC probabilistic study.

b)    ERCOT plans to have the work for the zonal reliability done by the end of June, and will try to present the results in July. The effective load carrying capability work will be finished at the end of July.

c)     The results of the NERC study will be done middle of 2023, but they will provide the data in SAWG earlier than that.

d)    They are also working on wind and solar modeling updates.

7)    CONE Study NPRR and Study Resumption Discussion

a)    This project has been on hold to allow for PUC market re-design. ERCOT wants to have the group re-visit this and discuss it at the next meeting. The CONE study can proceed without the NPRR being ready, and will resume at the end of this year.

8)    Reserve Margin Study

a)    This is an every-other-year study and ERCOT believes that this is ready to move forward. With the recent delays, it should proceed next year.

9)    Annual DG Report

a)    ERCOT presentation posted and given sowing DG growth through 2021.

10) Other Business

a)    Kim Rainwater was the Vice Chair, but she now works for ERCOT. Ian Haley will return as Vice Chair.

b)    The group was asked for thoughts of being a Webex or hybrid. The next meeting will be in-person (hybrid) on May 13^th.

c)     Another member asked ERCOT to explain how they are accounting for behind the meter load in the CDR and SARA at a future meeting. This is relevant for the certain generators. ERCOT will likely not have numbers next meeting. This is likely a good fit for the Large Flexible Load TF for discussion, but ERCOT can give a brief update.

11) Adjourn